Good day my good friend.
This week has definitely been a frustrating one. The process of engaging with people on the development of a new strategy is often a frustrating one, and this week has been frustrating in good ways and in bad.
But the best way to deal with frustration, I often find, is to walk away from it. Walk away, have a cup of tea, chew it over for 15 minutes, and then come back to it with all the anger and frustration taken out of it. For all of our sophisticated methods and ways of delivering things, sometimes good common sense is the best strategy.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. The main way my audience grows is through your recommendations. I will love you forever if you do. 😍
James Gleave
🤷♂️ An Inconvenient Truth?
As I am sure you all know, I very much favour action to reduce carbon emissions from transport. I have spent much time in this newsletter discussing whether we major on technological changes, or behaviour changes (short version: we need both, as indicated by the Climate Change Committee).
But all this time I have had this nagging feeling. That feeling is the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the single greatest shock to travel in the UK for which we have somewhat reliable data for. It is arguably the single biggest transport behaviour change intervention, if an unintentional one, in the history of the UK. Its impact on how we got around is well known, but I think it is worth reminding ourselves of it.
In 2020, the average number of trips per person dropped by 22%, to 739 trips per person per annum. This was primarily as a result of COVID-19 related travel restrictions, including lockdowns and bans on international travel. Across the year, we have not seen levels of travel like this since 1972, with trips and miles travel even below that level.
Source: Department for Transport.
Meanwhile, the average daily transport use by the most polluting modes was below that of 2019 across the entire year. Although the reductions were the most significant during lockdown periods.
Source: Department for Transport
Meanwhile, road transport, which is responsible for the majority of carbon emissions from transport in the UK, dropped by 21% in 2020 compared to 2019.
So, how much did the UK’s carbon emissions drop as a result? Overall, by an estimated 9.5%, according to UK government data. And for transport specifically, this is by an estimated 19.2%. While the majority of this reduction was from road transport, aviation transport also experienced a significant relative reduction.
Source: Office for National Statistics
That linearity is quite amazing to see. And it is amazing for two reasons. Firstly, is the sheer linearity of it. Each 1% reduction in driving in the UK results in a corresponding c.1% reduction in carbon emissions from transport. That points to the effectiveness of (an admittedly extreme) behaviour change initiative. What a win for behaviour change.
At the same time, proponents of behaviour change should not get so cocky. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in some of the most extreme behaviour change initiatives it is possible to implement. People were literally told to not travel for a number of months. And for the rest of the time were advised not to do it unless essential.
Yet, doing that only reduced carbon emissions from transport by 19.2%.
I realise that there are a lot of complexities to this aggregate data. Carbon substitution happens (e.g. while you are not burning carbon driving, you are burning more carbon by using electricity at home). Many could not work from home and there was a lot of essential travel even during lockdowns. There are well-documented issues with estimates and approximations.
But thinking of this, I can’t help but wonder. Have we underestimated quite how much lifting low carbon technologies in transport will need to make in order to help us decarbonise? The most extreme behaviour change initiative ever done cut transport carbon emissions by barely a fifth. Yet we think that we will get to a low carbon future by getting even half of people to walk, cycle, and use public transport?
I have not thought that modal shift is the main way we will decarbonise for a long time. It plays a big part and has a lot of other benefits that cannot be ignored. I have long thought that we have needed a balanced approach between behaviour change and technology.
Despite this, I think the experience of COVID-19 has revealed that maybe, just maybe, technology could save the world. I may be wrong, and I certainly need to learn more. But its an interesting thought, don’t you think?
👩🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author – they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
TL:DR – Researchers develop new accessibility indicators and apply them to the Lisbon Metro.
TL:DR – Informal settlements are the result of decision of formalised government.
TL:DR – Chinese researchers identify factors that influence how completely and utterly f**ked off cyclists are. Male cyclists are more angry than female cyclists.
Breaking barriers: An assessment of the feasibility of long-haul electric flights
TL:DR – Remember how in the first days of aviation flights made multiple stops to refuel? We are that point with electric long haul flight.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
For people with visual impairments, using public transport is hard. And while announcements of the next stop have been common on trains and metros for years, on buses they are rare. This is why people like Shreyas Reddy are needed. He has visual impairments himself, and he took legal action against the Bengaluru Metropolitan Transport Corporation in India, to get them to re-introduce audio announcements on public transport in Bangalore. And he won.
📺 On the (You)Tube
Finally, someone says it. I agree with the Jan Gehl school of thought on urban form in many areas. But not in terms of building heights. Tall buildings can be fine. Even the great man himself says so (with caveats).
🖼 Graphic Design
Source: Smartick
Has anyone done a study between screen time and how often (and how) we travel? I can’t help but think there is a small link there. Plus I’m amazed at quite how little time the average Brit spends with their face in their phone.
📚 Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
- Urbanisation’s role in the climate crisis is being overlooked (Financial Times)
- ‘No cash accepted’ signs are bad news for millions of unbanked Americans (The Conversation)
- The Contractual Origins of High-Rent Urban Blight (Marginal Revolution)
- Inside the DIY Movement to Fight Coastal Erosion (Wired)
- Looking back on 40 years of Macintosh (The Verge)
📰 The bottom of the news
It would seem that many road gangs have a habit of phoning the job in. Especially when it comes to painting lines on roads. Painting the lines over leaves both makes me laugh and makes me cry.
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