Good day my good friend.

You have probably heard about the horrible situation in Israel and Gaza. A friend of my good friend Eyal Santo has had their young nieces kidnapped and taken into Gaza. This is a long shot, but if any of you know anything about their whereabouts, please let them know1.

If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. I will love you forever if you do. ☺️

James

⛽ Beware unintended consequences

This newsletter has previously covered the necessity of transitioning the vehicle fleet to electric vehicles as a means of achieving our climate goals. There are known consequences of doing so, such as radically shifting vehicle supply chains and changes in pollution of particulates. Much of this knowledge is down to the fact that we already have a front-runner on the adoption of electric vehicles. Norway.

Most people I know understand that Norway is a leader in electric vehicles, but few understand quite how far ahead it is. By 2025 it will be illegal to sell any fossil fuel powered vehicles in Norway including hybrids. In 2022, battery electric vehicles made up 79.2% of new car sales in Norway. So this makes the country perfect for understanding the impact EV adoption will have on society. And one early finding could have profound effects, particularly for less accessible areas.

The days of the petrol station are numbered.

Its obvious, really. When you have an electric vehicle, and especially if you have origin and destination charging, there is no need for the special or stop off trip to the pumps. In fact, even when petrol stations install charging points, people only use them once a month. In fact, over half of drivers use fast charging points less than once a month.

To understand this impact better, current petrol stations make their money in two ways. The first is selling fuel, but not much money is made here. Figures vary, but in the USA the average station owner pulls in about 7 cents profit in every dollar spent on fuel. The second is in the shop – those bottles of water, the loaf of bread, sweets for the kids in the back, and the flowers because you are in trouble. The shop pulls in a profit margin of 33%, much higher than the fuel.

Under the current model it the most profitable customers are the ‘high milers’ – more miles so visiting more often, meaning they buy that chocolate bar or decide to get that coffee from the machine as they queue to pay for fuel. In an EV world, their visits are radically reduced. And without that, the petrol station dies.

But here is the rub. Those situated in rural areas are the more vulnerable to this change. Such stations rely on passing motorists to stop, fuel up (in both senses), and carry on. They make lower margins and face higher costs due to their rural nature – in other words, it costs more to get fuel to them. Furthermore, in many rural communities, the petrol station can provide access as a food store, even for fresh goods like bread and vegetables.

In some respects, this is a continuing trend. In the UK, there were 35,000 petrol stations in 1980, and there were just over 8,000 in 2021. Many petrol stations are trialling the installation of local EV hubs. Some, like Parkfoot in Kent, have transitioned away from petrol completely and into retail.

But why this is important to us as transport decision makers is because in achieving a noble policy goal, there will be consequences in our communities. Elaine Schwarz, whose post on her Econlife blog inspired this post, puts faith in the creative destruction of entrepreneurs (in a good way) as a way of seeking opportunity from such consequences. Regardless, when you are finalising your local EV charging point policy, think of this. You may be changing communities across your area far more than you think.

What you can do: This is an odd one, because this is something ripe for researching, discovering, and exploring as opposed to doing at this stage. I would highly recommend Elaine Schwarz’s post on gas station economics, this post and report on Norway’s evolving EV incentives, and this article on rural petrol stations on the Autocar website as good starting points.

If you want to explore the implications of EV charging policy, do so with experts and people who know inaccessible areas inside out. Doing a workshop using system mapping or critical uncertainties as methods is a good way, maybe even use an Agreement-Certainty Matrix. Regardless, identify the possible, then the plausible, and ask what you can do to plan for that, if anything.

🙂 Good news corner

An occasional segment, because sometimes we need it. And this good news is associated with electric vehicles.

If you are worried that we are losing the climate fight, remember this. At the moment, the world is adding 1 Gigawatts (GW) of solar energy every day.

So what, doesn’t sound much, right? Put this in perspective, the UK’s Nuclear Power Stations produced 15.5% of the UK’s annual electricity in 2022, and they have a capacity of 5.9GW. So by the end of this week, the same solar capacity will have been installed across the world.

🎓 From academia

The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author – they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.

A review of the housing market-clearing process in integrated land-use and transport models

TL:DR – Clearing is a process where supply is the same as demand. The problem is, land use and transport models rarely care about it.

Employee intentions and employer expectations: a mixed-methods systematic review of “post-COVID” intentions to work from home

TL:DR – Assumptions about working from home depend on how flexible employers are being.

Online shopping, brick-and-mortar retailers and transit ridership in the U.S.

TL:DR – Online shopping has an effect on visits to the mall, which has a (tiny) impact on use of local public transport.

Urban form, air pollution, and walking behavior: A study of Salt Lake County, Utah

TL:DR – Downtown is good for walking.

✊ Awesome people doing awesome things

Howay the Lads for this one, because this one goes out to Newcastle United Football Club. Ok, technically its to Newcastle United and Nexus, as fans heading to St James’s Park have for some time been able to benefit from a ticket not offered by any other football team I know of – the Magpie Mover.

For £25 for the season, season ticket holders at the club can get unlimited use of local public transport for 3 hours before and 3 hours after matches. Its even accepted by the Shields ferry. It also helps when the metro has a station directly under the stadium.

This is an example that most sports teams should follow.

📷 Out and About