Good day my good friend.
Its been too long. In a bid to make train tickets simpler, demand-responsive pricing is going to be introduced and single fares scrapped. Because trains are like airlines. That, or there is thinking within the Department that the needs of an urban rail service are exactly like those of an intercity train. Whose willing to bet that we will be here again in 5 years, complaining about how rail fares are complicated?
If you have any suggestions for interesting news items or bits of research to include in this newsletter, you can email me.
James
Electric flight – where are we at?
Being able to get on a plane which is flown purely on electricity. An often-panned idea by those who would rather we just give up flying (for good reason, to be fair), and a favourite of futurists. The big challenge is not just the weight and efficiency of batteries, but having to redesign the entire airframe of an aircraft from scratch to fly with batteries as opposed to huge engines burning through jet fuel. But its an idea that has promise, especially on short haul flights. So, where are we at?
We are at the breaking records stage, with the deployment of the technology in trials gathering pace. At least for small planes. NASA is due to fly a plane this year. Airbus had an electric air race. Air Canada and United Airlines have placed orders for 30 electric-hybrid aircraft for short hop regional routes. And there has been early research on adoption barriers. Its all very early stage of the hype cycle, but with a technology that seems very much deployable. While I agree, we should probably fly less, maybe in the next 10 years, electric planes may not be as rare as we think.
Explaining vehicle turnover to newspaper editors
Despite the coming ban on the sale of fossil fuel powered vehicles, less than a third of the European vehicle stock will be electric vehicles, screams the bastion of truth and honesty known as the Daily Express (no laughing at the back). Looking to rehash the findings of a 2022 report on the Forecourt of the Future by OC&C Strategy Consultants. Lets say that the attitude of the Daily Express is not exactly condusive to achieving Net Zero at any time soon. But this may be something that we will need to communicate clearly in the future: just because something is banned, doesn’t mean it goes away.
This is due to a simple concept: vehicle fleet turnover. The average age of a car in Europe is currently 11.8 years old. So it will take decades for the vehicle fleet to fully transition to electric vehicles as the old fossil fuel fleet gets phased out, or as is often the case shifted to lower income countries so they continue to pollute the lungs of vulnerable people. This is a drum we will have to bang for decades. Its a less than perfect shift to Net Zero, and it will take time. But its a step in the right direction.
Random things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
Phaseout Pathways for Fossil Fuel Production within Paris-compliant carbon budgets (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)
An interview with AI: What ChatGPT says about itself (Yahoo News)
The Designer Economy (Noema)
Advocacy Coalitions, Power and Policy Change: ‘Powering’ and ‘Puzzling’ (Policy & Politics Journal Blog)
Something interesting
When it comes to bike infrastructure, the Netherlands is now just showboating. Here is the Manchester version of the same idea.
If you do nothing else today, then do this
Waka Kotahi (the New Zealand Transport Agency for those of you not fluent in Māori) have published research into Monetised Benefits and Costs parameters for transport schemes. So if you are interested in how the values of time are monetised in transport schemes, this is a great read.
Mobility Matters 