Good day my good friend.

I must say that I am disappointed. I can’t imagine that planning the procession of a deceased monarch is an easy thing in the slightest. But the news that our departed Queen will be flown from Edinburgh to London, instead of taking the Royal Train, has disappointed me somewhat on the environmental side. But not as disappointed as I was to see that our current and former Prime Minister flew to Balmoral last week to see the Queen from Westminster, ten minutes apart from each other, on two different private jets, and back again in the same day. Priorities, eh?

If you have any suggestions for interesting news items or bits of research to include in this newsletter, you can email me.

For those of you coming to Mobility Camp in Bristol on 29th September, I will see you there. Tickets are sold out, but if you are still interested you can put your name on a reserve list. Or, sponsorship slots are still available.

James

Low cost long haul seems to be viable and is lowering air fares

One of the most significant emerging challenges to achieving transport climate goals is the emergence of the low cost airline. When planning a holiday or trip, the climate impact is often not thought about, but that issue was primarily focussed on short haul flights due to the prevalence of low cost airlines on these routes. But before the pandemic hit, Norwegian started flying a Transatlantic low cost service. And the impacts have been profound.

Early stage analysis has shown that where Norwegian flew a long haul route, prices reduced by between 17% and 20%. The good news? Norwegian found out that operating low cost long haul is hard (to be honest, they could have just asked Sir Freddie Laker how hard it is), but others are now trying in their absence. Fares on long haul routes are generally price inelastic, but more long haul flights that are cheaper will mean more flights, and more carbon emissions that we sorely do not need.

In an uncertain world in flux, you need models more, but in a different way

Reading this research article on forecasting shipping container traffic down the Yangtze River Delta during significant events prompted my interest in two ways. First, I bet that this forecasting method is proving extremely useful around about now. The second is about an age-old transport debate about using models in a predictive capacity. Namely that of moving to vision and validate rather than predict and provide.

We spend a lot of time talking about the behaviours models can enable (model says traffic will get worse, model says if we build road traffic won’t be as bad, therefore we must build the road). But somewhat less on their value in an uncertain world. Namely, using them to test options, and then critically to enable models to learn based upon delivery of options. This research article, even if clumsily and indirectly, points to establishing modelling frameworks that are useful because they do just this. By situating models in a way that they learn over time, we make them useful in an uncertain world.

Random things

These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.

• Scientists discover how air pollution causes lung cancer (Financial Times)

• Governance for a Healthy Economy (Project Syndicate)

• Our Ancestors Thought We’d Build an Economic Paradise. Instead We Got 2022 (Time)

• How a railroad strike could send food prices soaring (The Hill)

• Wall Street’s Favorite Sport Is a Failing Business (New York Times)

Something interesting

Crazy borders make transport issues extremely hard to solve, and make it harder for people to travel for everyday life. And its not just on the US-Canada border either. It’s almost like living in a borderless world is a good idea.

If you do nothing else today, then do this

There are two things ways that you can change the world: change the law, or change the finance. This is an excellent paper on how meeting climate targets needs financing, with practical examples. This is not just about more public money being spent on climate change, by the way. This is about re-orientating finance towards achieving this goal. Read it.