Good day my good friend.

A question for all of you. Is it safe to say that the majority of us are Lionesses now? Being good at both men’s and women’s football is a very strange place to be in as someone who lives in England and is used to constant disappointment when it comes to football.

If you have any suggestions for interesting news items or bits of research to include in this newsletter, you can email me.

You should also join a lot of like-minded people at Mobility Camp in Bristol in September. Get your tickets now. Sponsorship slots are also available.

James

Transport Committee says to government: you may want to check the Integrated Rail Plan again

Just this morning, the House of Commons’ Transport Committee has published a report into the UK’s Integrated Rail Plan. In a conclusion that shocked nobody, the Committee says that nobody has done their homework on the impacts of scaling back HS2 so that it stops at East Midlands Parkway and on the impacts on the business case. It also reveals that no business case work has been done to understand the impacts of the full range of options on Northern Powerhouse Rail.

I personally have been a vocal supporter of HS2, and believe that investment in rail is vital for a low carbon future. Despite that, what worries me about this report is how it points out a fundamental failing of decision making. When the scope of the scheme changes, you re-do the business case to understand the impacts of it. Not make the decision and fudge the numbers afterwards (that happens far too often). This is really basic transport planning that is not being done.

Traffic prediction is hard, especially in low flow environments

I do like it when a research article scratches the nerdy itch. And this article on estimating average daily traffic flow on low traffic roads does just that. Traffic flows on highly-trafficked roads are often continuous in nature, and because of their frequency are less prone to errors in terms of the influence of unique factors at the time of the count. That’s not to say they don’t have errors, but the impact is less because they are done more often. What an example of that frequency? Check out how frequently Manual Classified Counts are done on minor roads in the DfT’s Road Traffic Statistics.

Classified Counts aren’t expensive – about £450 for half a day – but to be done robustly (i.e. numerous times) over extended times the cost can add up. The research takes census data and applies a prediction model for traffic flows, and predicted flows with a high level of accuracy. This is potentially very promising as a tool for estimating traffic flows for transport planning in rural areas (combined with a randomised sample of Manual Classified Counts every year to test the validity of the estimates over time).

Random things

These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.

• What Singapore is prioritising for climate mitigation (City Monitor)

• Historical Map: Transportation Map of Greater Kansas City, 1941 (Transit Maps)

• Making a house a home: Why policy must focus on the ownership and distribution of housing (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)

• The Bold Journey to Reveal Every Dark Inch of the Ocean Floor (The Daily Beast)

• Wildfires Are Setting Off 100-Year-Old Bombs on WWI Battlefields (Vice)

Something interesting

Joe Kibble is off on his travels again. After getting as far from London as he could on a bus in 24 hours, and doing the same by train, now he is hoping to #GoWest by travelling from the most Easterly bus stop in the UK (in Lowestoft) to the most Westerly. My guess is that the Westerly stop is somewhere on Vatersay or Barra islands in Scotland. Or, depending on your definition of the UK, somewhere in County Fermanagh in Northern Ireland. Any guesses?

If you read nothing else today, then read this

The House of Lords Library has published this really useful summary of the next steps for e-scooter trials in the UK, that you should read. On a similar note, if you ever want a plain English explanation of a transport issue, the House of Commons Library has some excellent briefing notes.