Good day my good friend.

As part of a larger reading challenge that I have set myself for this year (52 books in a year), I am currently reading Skin in the Game by Nassim Taleb. While its far from his best work, Taleb’s central thesis that the world is so complex and eludes our ability to make sense of it, and in order to enact change we need to take ownership of the risks (and benefits) of our actions is something that strikes a chord with me. Perhaps us consultants should be more invested in the impact of what we do, and not just getting a good reference.

Something to ponder over the coming months. If you have any suggestions for interesting news items or bits of research to include in this newsletter, you can email me.

James

We apply safety standards differently to different modes, and its time it got called out

This article by Carlton Reid is very, very good. It covers a basic principle of fairness. If something that is new is subject to special rules, those who came before it must also be subject to those same rules. Especially when those that came before it are killing a lot of people.

It also covers a degree of proportionality. E-scooters have been subject to restrictions on speed enforced by location technology – rightly in my view – and also standards on training (probably needs improving) and vehicle design. But the main threat to safety on our streets – cars – is only subject to two of these. Time to start limiting speed by technology in cars, I say.

Quantifying the known unknowns on traffic management

Short term traffic prediction is one of the key benefits of installing intelligent traffic management systems, with many benefits in terms of reduce congestion being cited. But despite an increase in raw processing power and computational complexity over the last 10 years, it is important to understand the limits of this approach to improving traffic flow on our highways.

But where is the boundary, and how close are we to approaching it? New research has attempted to define what that bound of prediction could be. The conclusion? As usual, it depends on a lot of circumstances associated with the network that is being assessed, but it demonstrates that those boundaries exist in the data. The result is a useful framework for exploring them, and potentially applying to your intelligent transport system.

Transmitting COVID-19 on public transport – the evidence is not as clear cut as we think

At the start of COVID-19, the World Health Organization recommended restricting the use of public transport to reduce transmission of the virus, based on the best evidence of the time. Based largely off the evidence of other respiratory diseases. Then came the pushback, saying that the risks were largely overstated, and that messaging concerning restricting use of public transport should be eased. But what is the evidence?

Luckily, a rapid evidence review has shone some light on this, and the truth is more complicated than simple slogans. The researchers themselves put it far better than I ever will:

There is evidence for transmission in certain cases, and mixed evidence for the presence of viral RNA in transport settings; there is also evidence for some reduction of risk through mitigation. However, the routes of transmission and key factors contributing to transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on public transport were not clear during the early stage of the pandemic.

Random things

These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope they do just that.

• The Varieties of Bulls**t (Peter Ludlow)

• Why do corporations greenwash? (Al Jazeera)

• Venture Funding Powers Up For EV Battery Startups (Crunchbase)

• U.S. offshore wind auction bids top $1.5 bln, with more to come (Reuters)

• Renewable Heat For All – Manifesto (Climate Action Network Europe)

Something interesting

The fact that over 50% of the stations have their origins in English speaks a lot for Singapore’s history as a colony, as it does of the achievements of the British in Singapore.

Something extra interesting

Elon said the quiet bit out loud.

If you do nothing else today, then do this

We finally managed to publish the outputs from Mobility Camp 2021. You should check them out.

This week for paid subscribers

Mobility Matters

Mobility Matters Extra – Cyber Security is something you should care about

The world of mobility is undergoing nothing less than a technological revolution. Such technologies pose significant issues, most notably cyber security. Hacking of connected vehicles and traffic signals hits the headlines and news. How this issue will evolve, and how the automotive, public transport, maritime, aviation, and other sectors of mobility re…

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2 years ago · James Gleave