With a map of Egypt for good measure

Good day my good friend.

A solid day working combined with a solid day councilloring (is that a word? If not, it is now). Not much time to digest what is going on in the world outside of my town, but I’ve done my best. Enjoy it.

James

Methods that use GPS data to determine between walking and cycling trips are highly variable, and should be used with caution

Turns out that using that little gadget in your pocket to measure walking and cycling trips is somewhat tricky. Mainly because when you are processing the data, its really hard to tell the difference between the two. Some new research has tested some algorithms against some real data from Vancouver, and the reading isn’t good. 10 of the 14 tested were no good, and the 4 tested were only at the 90% accuracy level. In their own words:

Density is a key variable for trip identification in the best-performing algorithms. Proximity to tree canopy, buildings, bridges, and tunnels affects the accuracy of some algorithms more than others. Most algorithms err almost entirely with false trips or false activities, which is a bias of concern for analysis.

Simply, we need to do more work to improve the accuracy of our data, including the accuracy of self-reporting the type of trip done. This is the key missing ingredient that our data processing desperately needs. Then we can finally take advantage of this 40 year old technology.

There are plenty of ideas for reducing the financing risk for low carbon investments. They just need doing.

As you can probably guess, I’m going on a bit of a thing about financing in transport, and particularly financing the transition to zero carbon. We don’t often talk about it, but ensuring that we can de-risk low carbon investment is crucial to finance the change to low carbon transport. The reason being is that the transition to zero carbon is seen as a higher risk investment. But this is particularly the case for the developing world.

New work by the Center for Global Development sets out how Sovereign Bond Guarantee’s being linked to zero carbon investment can encourage investment in this technology by overcoming the risk of default (translation: the US government will underwrite the risk if a developing nation defaults on bond payments for investing in low carbon technology). More good ideas to grease the wheels of investment. It just needs doing.

The state of electric vehicles is this: its on the verge of beating combustion engine vehicles on almost every metric

This section was partly influenced by this article by Bjorn Lomberg, a man I used to respect, on electric vehicles that is full of poor assumptions, falsehoods, and outright lies. So let’s get one thing straight. While electric cars are far from the panacea to our climate issues and have issues in their own right, the fact that they are competing with fossil fuel-powered cars is an extremely good thing.

The costs of electric cars are coming down and will be cheaper to produce than fossil fuel cars (which benefit from huge economies of scale) within 5 years. Electric cars are already bringing down the CO2 emissions from new cars. The percentage of new sales has rapidly increased over the last 2 years, while 7 in 10 drivers would consider buying an EV as their next car. They are a big part of the future, so get used to it.

Random things

These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope they do just that.

• The Evolutionary Power of Cities and Light (MIT Press Reader)

• Airlines Face Unexpected Safety Issue in Pandemic: More Bird Strikes (Wall Street Journal)

• The 1918 flu didn’t end in 1918. Here’s what its third year can teach us (The Washington Post)

• Latin America’s New Economic Model May Emerge in Chile (Bloomberg)

• Amateur Rocket Builders Planning to Launch Astronaut Into Space (Futurism)

Something interesting

That’s one long country.

If you do nothing else today, then do this

Fill out this public consultation on the skills needed for the next generation of future transport leaders. Personally, good engagement skills, a positive attitude to net zero, and good at collaboration would be a good start.