The usual nonsense from the world of transport

Good day my good friend,

It’s one of those days where I hate owning a car. Enough said. Let’s get to the articles before I go and drive that useless hunk of a metal off the nearest cliff.

James

This free daily newsletter is sent to everyone. Paid subscribers get an ad-free version, as well as access to exclusive in-depth analysis once a week, and a tailored analysis on a policy issue once a month. You can upgrade at any time.

Major projects with lots of dependencies are hard to keep on track

The UK transport sector has a long history in terms of project control for costs, and using historic evidence on cost overruns to (attempt to) improve cost forecasting – or Reference Class Forecasting. But there are three corners of the triangle that is the dark art of project management, and now we have some evidence that shows our performance when it comes to scheduling.

Jung Eun Park reviewed evidence from transport schemes from the UK and the USA for the last 20 years1. Whilst cost forecasting has improved, scheduling hasn’t. At all. The solution proposed is simple: reference class forecasting. Or in English: “That thing you did to improve cost forecasting? Do that for scheduling please.” Other research2 indicates that the reason why this hasn’t been done is simple – there isn’t a big round number alongside the schedule, just a reputational issue.

Is there brand loyalty in transport?

A nice big question there, which has been inspired by this meta-analysis by Silveira et al, which simply confirms that its hard to tell as the studies vary wildly in methods, although there has been work to operationalise loyalty metrics. But this focus on operations and brand loyalty as a process misses a key determinant of loyalty – attitudes.

Evidence from the airline industry shows that attitudinal variables are key explainers of behavioural loyalty. Public transport users who have a positive image of public transport and consider using it core to city life are more likely to be loyal. If the company is more pro-environment there is evidence of higher brand loyalty. Simply put: we don’t know if there is, but there are some useful frameworks for thinking about it.

The evidence around road pricing and the impacts on health – I was wrong

Some issues back, I highlighted the fact that the impact of road pricing on health, in that case the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London, was limited. Completely unrelated to my thoughts, and I daresay with FAR more rigour, Hosford et al have done a meta analysis of the health impacts of congestion pricing schemes. Their conclusion? The evidence looks promising on health outcomes:

…the existing evidence suggests road pricing has mostly net positive effects related to a reduction in car trips, air pollution, asthma attacks, and road traffic collisions, and increases in life expectancy.

They do note that more research is needed, particularly long term research of the health impacts, and looking at a wider range of health outcomes. Regardless of this, I am more than happy to state I was wrong on this one. The evidence is promising.

Random things

The usual nonsense from different corners of the Internet.

• Transport Committee: Pause Smart Motorway roll-out until safety can be delivered and assured (UK Parliament)

• Tesla recalls 11,704 vehicles after identifying Full Self-Driving Beta software error (TechCrunch)

• Boda Riders Become Bus Touts (Lubyanza)

• There’s No Cheap Way to Deal With the Climate Crisis (ProPublica)

• Rage Against The Machine (Strong Towns)

Interesting things

In recent weeks, I have just got into the JenOnTheMove YouTube channel, and there are loads of great videos in the classic Top Gear race style. This is the best one that I have watched. Will a bike along a canal beat the tram?

If you do nothing else today, then do this

Read the report of the Parliamentary Advisory Council on the safety of private e-scooters.