Good day my good friend.
I am currently writing this newsletter while on a train heading North towards Leeds. And you know the saying that you should enjoy a sunrise at least once a year? Well, as the train speeds through the Cambridgeshire countryside, I am doing just that. Sometimes, travelling by public transport is just brilliant.
If you like this newsletter, please share it with someone else who you think will love it. The main way my audience grows is through your recommendations. I will love you forever if you do. 😃
I have co-authored a book on Mobility-as-a-Service, which is a comprehensive guide on this important new transport service. It is available from the Institution of Engineering and Technology. 📕
⚽ Being Lionel Messi to AI’s Cristiano Ronaldo
The footballing world has had the privilege over the last 15 years of being blessed with 3 generational talents. The one everyone doesn’t talk about is Manuel Neuer, the Bayern Munich goalkeeper who has been the most important goalkeeper since Lev Yashin defined the position. But the two most of you probably know about are Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo (don’t worry, I will get to transport soon, I promise).
The two could not be more different. On the one hand you have Messi, without a doubt the best player of my lifetime. He is the player who sits above the game. Working out how the opposition plays, his position and role in the game, before turning on the style and the skill to turn a game on its head. On the other you have Ronaldo, probably the best player to have ever played for my own team Manchester United (and that is saying something). He has no shortage of skill, but his pure industry and goal scoring prowess is probably the best that I have ever seen in my life. I mean, 450 goals in 438 games for Real Madrid? That’s insane.
When looking at the implications of Artificial Intelligence on the transport planning industry, I can’t help but think about this comparison between these two players. Trying to tell what the direction is going to be of AI is like trying to predict which way Djimi Traore‘s feet are going to go (I will stop with the football examples, I promise). But from my observation of LLMs and some of the different applications of Machine Learning and AI in improving the functionality and learning of statistical models is that the grunt work of transport planning could be significantly improved.
By that, I mean the likes of demand models potentially being able to learn and develop in real time through operational data. On live networks, they could experiment (within safety parameters of course) and try strategies to, among other things, increase pedestrian cross times, reduce delays on buses, and yes, reduce congestion. Such ideas have already been proven in a modelling environment, but the real world applications are currently lacking. You can also foresee situations where entire sections of reports and transport assessments could be written by ChatGPT. Though considering how many sections of transport assessments repeat themselves, I think it can do much of the writing already.
The potential of such software is quite something, and it is easy to get led by doomsaying headlines saying that AI is going to take all of our jobs and will be better than humans at everything soon. I personally do not see it that way. Despite this promise, AI is still bound by technical limitations (it still needs a hard drive somewhere to store information) and logic rules inherent within programming that restrict its capabilities. It also assumes that humans want to give up all decision making authority to AI, something that is a truly stupid thought.
This is where my view of transport planners becoming more like Lionel Messi comes in. I can foresee a future where the technical aspects of our work could be substantially undertaken by AI as a tool. Whether this be understanding how networks run in real time or writing sections of reports. What our role will be is in setting the objectives that the tools can advise us on the best way to proceed, sitting back and observing how things play out, and where applicable develop creative and unique solutions that others cannot see and can change the game. A mixture of both being part of the game, and playing above it.
What that role precisely looks like will become clear over the coming years. Much like our man from Argentina, it is more likely that we will learn and adapt as opposed to us fading away completely, but that does not mean that we will be less effective. Just different. And different is no bad thing. As he demonstrated at the last World Cup, just because Messi is not like he was when he was at Barcelona, does not mean he is any less good.
👩🎓 From academia
The clever clogs at our universities have published the following excellent research. Where you are unable to access the research, email the author – they may give you a copy of the research paper for free.
Zero-emission vehicle adoption towards sustainable e-grocery last-mile delivery
TL:DR – There are lots of ways by which groceries can be delivered by electric vehicle in a sustainable and low cost way. Shocker.
Barriers to the adoption of electric cars and electric motorcycles in Vietnam
TL:DR – There are a lot of them.
TL:DR – Driving sucks.
Destination unknown: Examining wildfire evacuee trips using GPS data
TL:DR – People tend to GTFO of wildfire areas, and they go to places that most planners do not expect.
✊ Awesome people doing awesome things
Walking buses tend to get a bad rep as being a bit gimmicky, with some even saying that they are no substitute for good pedestrian infrastructure. Which is a strange criticism. But the sense of community and building relationships between children and even between adults is brilliant, and this is why I support them. So well done to the parents and staff at Tollerton Primary School for setting one up. All power to you, and to making everyone’s day great!
📺 On the (You)Tube
As any child knows, dinosaurs are awesome. As most right-thinking adults know, trains are awesome. So, why not combine the two to achieve levels of awesomeness previously unimaginable?
🖼 Graphic Design
Why do we change our clocks? (Source: r/dataisbeautiful)
I never thought anybody could make clock changes so interesting. But this gives a visual representation of why we change the clocks.
📚 Random Things
These links are meant to make you think about the things that affect our world in transport, and not just think about transport itself. I hope that you enjoy them.
- How Sheep Help Solar Power (Econlife)
- Does ‘virtue signaling’ pay off for entrepreneurs? We studied 81,799 Airbnb listings to find out (The Conversation)
- Reforming innovation policy to help the EU escape the middle-technology trap (VoxEU)
- Earth’s sinking surface (Science)
- The alternate universe in which Tottenham are top (Undercover Economist)
📰 The bottom of the news
Bears are one of my favourite animals in the world. Somehow combining a bit of a dopey look with great strength and a lot of curiosity and intelligence. So this story of bears using a pedalo in a Safari Park near where I live cheered me up no end. Just look at their faces! 😄
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